Premium Estimation of General Insurance Contracts Using Buhlmann Credibility Model

Insurance coverage is reliant on appropriate premium determination, a focus addressed in this study through the application credibility theory. The aim was to compute short-term insurance premiums by leveraging authentic data from general insurance contracts as published in the IRA annual reports spanning from 2013 to 2021. The study employed the Buhlmann credibility model to derive net credible premiums for 13 non-life insurance contracts, assuming constant changes in business volumes. The estimation of credibility premiums was conducted by initially calculating within and between-portfolio variance with an aim of determining these premiums through linear estimation approach with the help of the credibility premium formula. The results revealed consistent credibility factors across all contracts, although other influencing factors were neglected. Therefore, it was highly recommended that an appropriate credibility model alongside other factors that influence premium estimation be considered to enhance the accuracy of premium estimates. Moreover, embracing heterogeneity over homogeneity is advised to better reflect individual risk profiles. The research underscores the importance of effective premium determination in insurance firms, as premiums constitute their primary revenue. Stakeholders, including insurers and regulators, are encouraged to integrate this approach and other relevant factors to enhance pricing accuracy and overall sector practices.