ARIMA Modeling to Forecast Pulses Production in Kenya

Pulses are vital staple foods in Kenya and are ranked second after cereals. This study focuses on forecasting production of pulses in Kenya using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Time series data on production collected from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistical yearbooks for the period 1961 to 2012 was used to model. The study found that ARIMA (1,1,2) was the appropriate model to forecast pulses production in Kenya. Based on this model the point forecasts showed that 25437.53 tons of pulses would be produced in 2020, 25342.27 tons in 2025 and 25357.44 tons in 2030 holding all things constant. The government should formulate and implement effective policies to promote pulses production in order to meet their consumption demand for the growing population and enhance food security in Kenya.