Spatial response of urban land use change and ecosystem service value in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River: A case study of Tongling, China

Exploring the impact of urban land use change (LUC) on ecosystem services is significant for ensuring urban ecological security and realizing regional economic development. This study used land use data from 1985, 2000, 2014, and 2020 of Tongling city and the CA–Markov model to predict the LUC in 2025 and 2030. The spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of LUC during 1985–2030 were analyzed using the land use dynamics model and Sankey diagram. The vegetation-corrected ecological services value (ESV) equivalent was used to quantify the impact of LUC on ESV. Estimating the profit/loss value and spatial autocorrelation revealed ESV’s spatial and temporal dynamics in Tongling city. The results show that: 1) The most obvious LUC in the study area during 1985–2030 is the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land, in which the proportion of cultivated land decreased by 9.6%, and built-up land increased by 12.2%. 2) During 1985–2030, the ESV in Tongling showed an increasing trend at the beginning and then decreased, reaching a maximum value of 274.74 billion yuan in 2000. Regarding individual ecosystem service functions, the hydrological regulation function significantly contributed to ESV changes. The area change in paddy fields and built-up land had the most significant impact on ESV. 3) The total addition of ESV in Tongling during 1985–2030 was 5.98 billion yuan; the total loss was 18.59 billion yuan, and the net loss was 12.6 billion yuan. The proportion of area with ESV gains relative to the whole city is getting smaller, and the proportion of area with ESV losses is growing. The spatial autocorrelation shows the presence of high aggregation in ESV profit and loss areas. Simulating future LUC in Tongling and exploring ESV’s response is beneficial to developing new landscape patterns and ecological protection. It also provides a scientific basis for the extensive promotion of sustainable urban development in the future.