A MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (2000-2015)

This research explores the relative impacts of federal government of Nigeria's fiscal operations on Nigeria's economy during the period 2000–2015. The empirical analysis investigated the effect of fiscal deficit on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) within the framework of co-integration and error correction methodology. Unit root test results indicated that six out of the seven variables included in the model were non-stationary in levels, but became stationary after first differencing. Also, the co-integration test indicated the existence of a long-run relationship between the included variables. An estimated Error Correction Model (ECM) revealed that the short-run impact of some of the explanatory variable on GDP was statistically insignificant. However, the fiscal deficit, which is the focal variable in the model, was significant and its impact was found to be negative. This implies that an incessant increase in fiscal deficit could lead to lower economic growth outcomes. The project, therefore, recommended that the government should apply caution in her budgetary operations with a view to ensuring that the extent of fiscal deficit is kept within tolerable limits. Also, it is recommended that a larger share of government expenditure should go into the provision of infrastructure (roads, power etc.) and other capital projects (hospitals, industries etc.) which have a substantial impact on the country's economic growth.